Re the Trans Mountain Pipeline – Justin, call Donald

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On April 15 the nation saw the reaffirmation of Justin Trudeau’s non-leadership on the Trans Mountain pipeline project. Following his meeting with premiers Notley and Horgan, Trudeau revealed that his government would be entering financial talks with Kinder Morgan aimed at providing the pipeline’s proponent with the certainty it requires to proceed. It is not clear that a financial backstop is the sum total of what Kinder Morgan was seeking when it asked that its concerns over the future of the project be resolved by May 31.

Kinder Morgan is a transportation company that builds fully approved and regulated pipelines to deliver oil and gas produced by its customers from point A to point B. It is not a flag-bearer for a political philosophy or ideological group. Its opponents on this project, however, are a very vocal, highly politicized and ideologically driven sub-set of the Canadian population with numerous axes to grind; anti-oil sands, anti-capitalist, anti-colonialist, to name a few. While a minority, these groups have influence out of proportion to their size including allies among some of Trudeau’s closest advisors. They are making every effort with their opposition to the Trans Mountain pipeline to draw a line in the sand and to force the government to cross it.

Both Kinder Morgan and its opponents rely on the rights delivered by Canada’s democratic institutions to allow them to go about their business, express their point of view, and not be interfered with or obstructed in their various enterprises by anyone without the appropriate cause or authority to do so. This is the “rule of law” referenced endlessly whenever this project is discussed. We accept the rule of law in our daily lives almost unquestioningly. By way of illustration, if you fail to pay your taxes you may be subject to fines and could face a prison term. People generally pay their taxes knowing that the government has the legal authority to collect them while also understanding that it has the coercive power, i.e., the police and court system, to enforce the law.

Opponents of various government policies or corporate activities have every right to protest against them by exercising their freedom of expression or to mobilize politically. The next level of engagement is to participate in or instigate acts of civil disobedience. There is a line that most of us understand should not be crossed; when these acts become criminal in nature and harm is done to persons or property. Those who choose civil disobedience often feel justified in their actions because they believe that theirs is a just cause, that they occupy a moral and ethical position that gives them licence to obstruct and push against or beyond legal boundaries.

Trudeau’s Liberals have been spinning a narrative from before the 2015 federal election that seemed bound to fuel anti-pipeline sentiment. They began by branding the NEB and its approval mechanisms as badly flawed or even broken. The previous Harper government had made efforts to streamline what was already an arduous process, principally by limiting consultations to those who might be directly affected by a given project. This was characterized as “gutting” the existing safeguards, the implied message being that existing pipelines and projects under review were not subjected to adequate scrutiny and therefore posed undue risk to the environment and to public safety. Even a superficial review of the safety and reliability of the 73,000 kilometres of NEB-regulated pipelines in Canada reveal this to be fatuous nonsense. The Liberals promised to revamp the process and restore the public trust they were largely responsible for undermining.

This narrative, while obviously useful to the Liberal electoral effort to demonize the Harper Conservatives, has also served to solidify the resolve of those already disposed toward actively opposing pipeline projects. Once elected, the Liberals then cancelled the Northern Gateway pipeline project claiming the cartoonishly named (by activists) “Great Bear Rainforest” was no place for a pipeline and also imposed a ban on tanker traffic along B.C.’s northern coastline. These arbitrary decisions, made without any visible signs of the “evidence-based” policy-making philosophy the Liberals claim they adhere to, must have been for the environmentalist crowd like catnip for a tabby. The ascension of an anti-pipeline NDP/Green provincial government in B.C. that since taking office has actively sought to derail the Trans Mountain project despite having no jurisdiction in the matter would have further agitated their already fevered minds.

The tepid support for the project since approval from Trudeau and key ministers like Jim Carr (Natural Resources) and Catherine McKenna (Environment and Climate Change) suggested that the government’s own heart was not really in it. Meanwhile, Kinder Morgan was discovering that the business of getting the thing built was not going to be easy with petty bureaucratic roadblocks being erected by the local municipal government in Burnaby being just one obstruction.

It has become more and more apparent that all the political wrangling and legal arguments are not and never were going to be the real battle. The real battle, and likely greatest source of uncertainty for Kinder Morgan, is what will take place on the ground when the acts of civil, and possibly criminal, disobedience become the centrepiece of everyone’s daily newsfeed. And that’s when the prime minister who has tried to substitute charm, endlessly repeated and often inane talking points, and largely pointless globetrotting for actual leadership is going to run aground.

Kinder Morgan just wants to build and operate transportation infrastructure to serve its clients as it believed it had the right to do and has reliably and safely done with its existing Trans Mountain pipeline for over sixty years. It doesn’t want to be defending the ramparts from the hordes in their trendy hiking gear or Alpaca wool ponchos, waving placards and chaining themselves to construction equipment. Demanding reassurance from this government is not gamesmanship but a sensible and prudent decision. There are other places where Kinder Morgan can operate that offer a more predictable business environment, the U.S., for one, where it won’t be necessary to die on some hill it has no interest or obligation to defend.

So how does the PM extricate himself from this ugly mess he has played a large role in creating? The first thing he should do is place a call to Donald Trump. Why Trump? Because, unlike Trudeau, Trump has confronted a similar situation and resolved it with swift and decisive action.

For months, during the late days of the Obama administration’s reign, opponents to the Dakota Access Pipeline project had occupied a tent city obstructing work on the project. Obama had ordered the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to conduct a full environmental impact assessment and issue an environmental impact statement. The Corps of Engineers had previously reviewed the route and found no significant impact. Shortly after taking office in January and February 2017, President Trump first reversed Obama’s legislation and then ordered the Corps of Engineers to conclude the environmental assessment. The project was completed in April and oil began flowing through the pipeline in May.

More than 1,000 permits and approvals were granted for the pipeline from a host of regulatory bodies. Engineering plans for the pipeline addressed a major point of contention, the risk associated with passing under Lake Oahe, by burying the pipe more than 95 feet below the lake bed – far deeper than the seven existing pipelines that already traversed the bed of the lake. Court actions may continue, but the pipeline is a physical reality.

Protesters in the camp were given a deadline to leave and the evacuation was completed only a day late in fairly orderly fashion. Unlike Trump, Trudeau does not need to expedite the permitting process as Trans Mountain has been approved by the NEB and by cabinet, and the jurisdictional right of the federal government is beyond dispute. What he does need to do is acknowledge that threat of disruptive behaviour by activist protesters is the one significant roadblock to getting the pipeline built and that the perceived weakness of the government with respect to upholding the rule of law is the primary source of uncertainty for Kinder Morgan. That he and his government have the will to stop unlawful actions, even at the risk of losing approbation from many of the groups they have so assiduously courted, is the message he must sell.

The question, yet unanswered, is whether the prime minister is capable of a believable performance as a tough and principled leader who will back up his “it’s in the national interest” mantra with decisive use of the coercive power that rests with his office. Such a persona is entirely at odds with his irrational desire to endlessly consult with everyone on every issue. “Sunny ways” just won’t cut it this time.

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(Un)Scientific American – Fatuous Nonsense on Climate Change & Social Unrest in Iran

Iran protest

The attribution of virtually any significant weather event to climate change is a particularly grating and ill-informed habit of climate evangelists. It is not supportable by the science, even blithe suggestions that climate change “contributed” to the severity of an event or to the frequency of particular event types are not verifiable. Making such statements is no less ridiculous than saying during a cold snap, “so what happened to global warming?”

To claim that climate change is a major driver of the current social unrest in Iran takes climate change attribution to a whole other level of bullshit. But, that’s where Scientific American went when it posted an article by Scott Waldman on January 8, Climate Change May Have Helped Spark Iran’s Protests.

According to Waldman, “The impacts of climate change are among the environmental challenges facing Iran that helped spark protests in dozens of cities across the Islamic republic.” He then says, “Rising temperatures are seen by some experts as an underlying condition for the economic hardships that led to the unrest.”

One such expert, Barbara Slavin, from the Atlantic Council, claims, “the role of climate change on the protests is “massive” and underreported by the media. The protests have largely sprung from provincial cities that climate refugees now call home, instead of the capital, Tehran.” Slavin maintains these “climate refugees” have moved from their farms into urban centres because 14 years of drought have made farming impossible.

Waldman throws in some alarmist projections – rainfall is expected to fall by 20% in the Middle East by the year 2100 and temperature to rise by 5⁰C – which are poor substitutes for observational data. Actual weather data covering 114 years from 1901 to 2015 highlight the obvious; Iran is a hot, arid country. Looking at both precipitation and temperature data over this period, a couple of things are quite striking. First, temperature has risen by about 1⁰C, consistent with global trends but hardly catastrophic. Second, precipitation has fluctuated quite dramatically, month-by-month and year-by-year but the monthly linear trend is nearly flat.[1]

Over the most recent 14-year period in the data (2002-15) the precipitation trendline for January shows a fairly steep decline but in July it shows an increase. Given that January is a wetter month in Iran than July, it is not surprising that the annual trend over this limited time frame is negative. But 14 years in terms of climate is almost nothing, using this limited data to prove climate change effects when the century-plus trend tells a markedly different story is just cherry-picking data to support your narrative.

Waldman also suggests that the worst effects of climate change in Iran, “could be curtailed with a drop in emissions from fossil fuels, a large percentage of which come from fossil fuels derived from the Middle East.” He then cites Kaveh Ehsani, an expert in Iranian politics at DePaul University, who claims, “there is a growing sense of environmentalism in Iran, in response to the drought and deadly heat waves.” But just to make sure he nails all the villains in the piece he also asserts that, “the Trump administration’s retreat from the Paris climate agreement and its larger rejection of climate policy mean that Iranian citizens are increasingly blaming environmental problems on the United States.”

Well, that’s neat and tidy. Western use of fossil fuels, the resultant changing climate, plus climate change denialism are the cause of civil unrest in Iran. The solution: stop using fossil fuels.

Waldman makes only passing reference to poor water management practices. In the abstract of a research paper, Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?, author Kaveh Madani states: “The government blames the current crisis on the changing climate, frequent droughts, and international sanctions, believing that water shortages are periodic. However, the dramatic water security issues of Iran are rooted in decades of disintegrated planning and managerial myopia.”[2]

The paper identifies three major causes of Iran’s growing water crisis: “(1) rapid population growth and inappropriate spatial population distribution; (2) inefficient agriculture sector; and (3) mismanagement and thirst for development.” Madani also posits that if Iran fails to change its water management policies and practices it risks losing, “its international reputation for significant success in water resources management over thousands of years in an arid area of the world.” In other words, the current regime in Iran has failed to adapt well to changing circumstances, certainly less well than its predecessors.

Waldman’s failure to mention population growth is a glaring omission. Iran experienced more than a fourfold increase in population over the past 60-plus years from about 19 million in 1955 to 82 million currently.[3] Half the population is under 30; it’s hardly a stretch to suggest a correlation between youth and civil unrest, particularly when those young people live under the iron rule of a despotic theocracy that limits their personal and political freedoms as well as economic opportunities.

Scientific American describes itself as “the award-winning authoritative source for the science discoveries and technology innovations that matter.” Let’s hope that the fatuous nonsense that is Waldman’s article was just a misstep into a pile of activist ordure rather than evidence of a more troubling malaise undermining the journal’s scientific authority.

 

[1] All climate data from the World Bank Group, Climate Knowledge Portal

[2] Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?, Kaveh Madani, August 2014, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences

[3] Population data from Worldometers.info, 2018